Are the 2020 presidential elections already affecting home sales in the region?
Clues could be found in the newly released August housing report by the Naples Area Board of Realtors.
One of them was closed sales of homes between $1 millionand $2 million year over year. The NABOR report shows a decrease of 5.7%in its territory.
"In the luxury and upscale second homes markets, which are often elective, buyers tend to have a longer-term horizon and base investment decisions on where they believe the economy and markets will be a year or more out in the future," said BudgeHuskey, president ofPremier Sotheby's International Realty. "Accordingly, there are mixed signals and sentiment."
Broker analysts reviewing the August Report are leery of sales activity next year as sellers will face market uncertainty brought on by a presidential election, according to NABOR.
In the third quarter of 2016 —right before the last presidential election — overall closed sales in Collier decreased 14%compared to closed sales during the third quarter of 2015.
Still, there is no exact science, and other factors are in play including interest rates that have remained at or near a historic low.
"We don't know how changes in the political climate will affect the housing market in 2020," said Wes Kunkle, president and managing broker at Kunkle International Realty. "We have an entire generation of first-time home buyers who have never seen interest rates over 6%."
And Kunkle is making his pitch: "With the recent quarter percentage point cut in interest rates, there hasn'tbeen a better time to lock in and buy than now."
Has it become a buyers' market?
Zillow, indeed, has declared it just that, now officially designating both the Collierand Lee County areas as cold markets.
Homes are staying listedlonger, 4%year over year, according to NABOR. As of July, its freshest data, Zillow shows listed Collier real estatelingering on its site for an average of 142 days—the fourth highest peak in six years in a market full of crestsand valleys. Lee has stayed more consistent recently, with listings staying within 100 and 115 days, since 2017.
In the Know:Fewer homes on the market, lower median prices while East Naples sizzles in sales
Jeff Jones, president of NABOR and broker at Keller Williams Naples, noted that owners of almost a third of homes in his market droppedtheir prices in August.
"There were 1,443 price reductions made during August, which is important for buyers as this is an indication that many sellers are eager to sell," Jones said.
Developers, such as Neal Communities, which is buildingnine Southwest Florida housing projects, are also providing incentives on their homes, cutting prices on some by as much as $30,000 and offering to cover closing costs.
Southwest Florida lags behind in some data point averages as compared to the state of Florida, which as a whole is considered a hot market on Zillow. Time on the market has been steadily dropping since 2010, with July's 84 days being within a day of the lowest point in a decade.
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Watch:Tourism Superstar commended for helping others at Paradise Coast Tourism Star Awards
Florida's consumer confidence plunge
Statewide, though, consumer confidence had its biggest drop in more than four years in August.
The University of Florida'smonthly Consumer Sentiment Index plummeted 6.6points to 93.4. The components making up the index — current personal financial situation and expectations of future economic conditions — all declined.
"The latest movements in consumer confidence anticipate a declining economic position,” saidHector Sandoval, director of the Economic Analysis Program at UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research.
Those in the growth and development industry are keeping an eye on that, along with other data, to see how that might affect Southwest Florida.
More:Nearly 600-home gated community coming to east Corkscrew Road in Estero
"I believe we will need to see more data over the next few months before this statistic has significant meaning," said Gary Tasman, CEO of Cushman & Wakefield. "Because this time of year is always slower in Florida, people start to get a little nervous. Then when season arrives, we see whether or not there was something meaningful to cause that psychological pessimism."
While it's also wait-and-see forJustin Thibaut,COO of LSI Companies, he said he was a little surprised at the number.
He noted there had been a 3.5 index jump the previous month—the biggest in more than a year.
Like Tasman, Thibautis seeingspending and investing, and that to him is a better indicator of growth and development. As one example, he cites the nine hotels in Southwest Florida that are in the works, and Thibaut said more are coming.
Another indicator for Collier and Lee are foreclosures, which symbolized the Great Recession.
More:15,000 older Florida homeowners at risk of foreclosure and homelessness
Throughout America and Florida more than a decade ago, communities experienced similar falls. But as Steve McQuilkin of The News-Press reported last year, Southwest Florida fell the hardest.
For a while,Lee County became the foreclosure capital of the nation, leading other metro areas in the so-called sand states of Florida, California, Nevada and Arizona.
Today, new data from RealtyTrac for August shows a little bit of a mixed bag.
The number of Collier properties receiving a foreclosure filing was down 4% than the previous month but still14% higherthan the same time last year. Lee's trend is much more positive at6% lower than the previous month and31% lowerthan the same time last year.
Lee had onemortgage fail for every 2,049, while for Collier, it was for every 2,593—similar to the nation's 2,554. Florida is fifth worst in the nation, with onefor every 1,633.But that still's an improvement over the previous month and year.
Andoptimism is being cited at thestate-level, with a caveat tied to President Donald Trump's actions.
“Economic indicators in Florida are still favorable,” UF's Sandoval said recently. “Despite the positive economic indicators, we anticipate further declines in consumer confidence in the coming months due to the ongoing trade war with China, threats of higher tariffs, and the recent signs of the beginning of a slowdown.”
FOXBusinessreported the Trump tariffs and the resulting surge in costs for suppliesis forcing many business owners to choose between raising prices and laying off workers, adding that the escalation of thetrade war earlier this month is putting the U.S. economy on the brink of arecession.
New Florida consumer confidence numbers are due out this week.
By the Numbers: Number of days on the market
Average forCollier homes on Zillow
(Highest peaks since 2013)
October 2017: 176
October 2016: 148
September 2018: 147
July 2019: 146 (most recent data)
Fewer homes on market;East Naples sales sizzle
Fewer homes are on the market, but there are more showings.
As first reported last week, that was another of the takeaways from the NABOR August home sales report.
Closed sales of homes in Collier County increased 7.4% in August,but overall inventory fell 17.8%to 4,917 properties, compared to 5,980 in August 2018, according toNABOR, whichtracks Collier home listings and sales,excluding Marco Island.
More:Fewer homes on the market, lower median prices while East Naples sizzles in sales
At the same time, local Realtors scheduled 16,878 appointments during August. This is an increase of 16%as compared to showings in August 2018.
From the report, my favorite number for those who watch House Hunters on HGTV and believe buyers only see three homes before deciding: on average, a home in the Naples area is shown 16 times before it secures a contract. Clearly, buyers are being selective anddoing some shopping.
More In the Know:Jimmy John's keeps moving south
East Naples, including parts of southeast Naples,continues to sizzle in home sales, leading Collier with a 35.6% jump in closed single-home sales as compared to last year; North Naples was second, up 15.6%.
History dictates that the inventory shouldpick up again as we move through what is known as the "pre-season" months,said Mike Hughes, vice-president and general manager for Downing-Frye Realty.
"We know that traditionally, inventory will begin to creep up in September, October and November as many sellers try to get a jump on the competition that might list their properties closer to our winter season," Hughes said. "The pre-season months can be a great time for buyers as well. Buyers will find less competition."
For the 10th time in 12 months, the median price dropped from a year ago.
The median closed price in August decreased0.2%to $317,918, which is $582 lower than the median closed price in August 2018 ($318,500). Only October 2018 and April 2019 saw price increases from the previous year.
Home sales close-up
Single-family median closed price
August 2018:$405,000
August 2019: $399,000
Condominium median closed price
August 2018: $250,000
August 2019: $245,000
Hottest markets
(Closed sales of single-family homes as compared to a year ago.)
East Naples region (NABOR defines as 34114, 34117, 34120, 34137): Up35.6 percent
North Naples region (NABOR defines as 34109, 34110, 34119): Up 15.6 percent.
Source:Naples Area Board of Realtors
NABOR goes underwater in a good way
NABOR is not only involved in projects above ground, but under water, too.
Its2019 Leadership Academybuiltoyster reefs using donated NHL hockey sticks that will be installed under the Celebration Park docksin Naples during Saturday'spublic Celebrate Clean Water party.
The reefs are anenvironmental engagement opportunity through the Rink2Reef Oyster Habitats Waterways Restoration Program that was created by Florida Gulf Coast University’s Marine Science Division.
Photos:What JLB ate (and more) at Celebration Park in Naples
Several members from the Bonita Springs-Estero Board of Realtors also participated in the build project. The habitats, when in place, will promote oysters, sponges and other filter-feeding aquatic organisms that remove pollutants and excessive nutrients from local waterways.
Registration for the free 3 to 6 p.m. event at 2880 Becca Ave., off Bayshore Drive, isrequested at NABOR.com. Celebration Park reopened Friday after being closed for a quick off-season break.
More:Collier hearing examiner paves the way for Celebration Park parking lot despite neighborhood objections
And:Without proper permits, Celebration Park parking lot draws concerns from some neighbors
Student housing coming to Immokalee
Construction began Mondayof a graduate student residence hall in Immokalee.
It's for theUniversity of Florida/Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences'sSouthwest Florida Research and Education Center,2685 State Road 29 N.
Currently, the center has one residential unit —built in 2007 — that can house eight students; a mobile home with space for four students and a former farm manager home for three students.
In the Know:Toll Brothers announces plan to build new townhome community in Naples
The new setup will replace a home rented by a local agricultural group and have enough space for eight more rooms, allowing for a total of 23 students to live at the center.
More construction begins
Constructionbegan in recent daysof the first phase ofSiena Lakes, a senior living community nearSt. Katherine's Greek Church off Airport-Pulling Road.
Even though Siena isnot expected to open until 2021, more than 70%of the initial 175 apartments have been reserved on the 29-acre campus,2521 Orange Blossom Drive, saidFred Moschetta, its sales director. Baltimore-based Erickson Livingintended to begin construction of the $300 million project oncea 50%pre-sales threshold hadbeen achieved.
"Demand for the lifestyle has exceeded our expectations,” Moschetta said.
The planis for morethan 350 independent living units, 35 assisted living bedsand 30 skilled nursing and memory care beds. The community, with one-level apartments,will feature Tuscan-influenced architecture, reflecting its namesake — Siena, Italy— and amenities such as a medical care center, pool areas and dining.
With a little bit of drilling, here's what In the Know found for the minimum a resident will pay for a starter one-bedroom pad.The monthly service package begins at $3,400 monthly for utilities, a meal plan and other services. But first one must pay an "entrance" fee of $352,000 or elect to go with an 80% refundable deposit.
For the latter, $541,000 gets you in the door.Should you decide to leave Siena or spend the rest of your life there, 80% will be returned to you or your heirs.
Delray Beach-based Kaufman Lynn Construction, which has an office in Estero and built the sales center at Siena,received a $100 million contract for the initialphase.
For $12 million in 2016, Erickson Livingpurchased the site, part of which for four decades had been the home of Stoney's Barn fruit stand and its U-Pick citrus grove.
In the three counties of Collier, Lee and Charlotte, 10 communities catering to folks age 55 andover were completed between 2000 and 2014.
The pace has quickened dramatically.
From 2015 through 2017, 21 senior housing projects including Sienawere either delivered, under constructionor proposed, according toCRE Consultants.
Phil Fernandez writes the In the Know column, focusing on growth and development. Send ideasor questions to pfernandez@gannett.com.
